The Stupidity Test

Add this to your hiring policy to weed out the numpties.

You could be forgiven for thinking this image is real, however I can prove it’s the handiwork of AI Gencraft, as once again I inexplicably have six fingers.

What is the Stupidity Test?

There’s been a lot of hoo-ha in the UK press recently, because a collection of politicians and police officers (who work closely with the Prime Minister) have been exposed as having placed a bet on the date of the latest General Election, which is 4 July 2024.

The big scandal is whether they had any inside knowledge of this date before its release, as that would make it insider trading which is illegal. 

The enquiries are ongoing, but I think the bigger issue is being overlooked.

I can hold it in no more! 

How is it NOT being discussed!?!?!?!

Let’s look at the evidence…

Scenario 1: inside knowledge

Let’s assume that the hapless punter did indeed have inside knowledge. 

He may have overheard Rishi telling an aide that (given the weather was set to be sunny on the Wednesday) he would go ahead and make the Election announcement and reveal the 4th of July.

Rishi wishing he had picked a different date or worn a sou’wester.

This would mean the punter had inside knowledge and therefore would be able to beat the given odds the bookmakers were offering him on the likelihood of that date being selected.

The key thing to bear in mind here is that the odds the bookmaker would give the punter would be LESS than the actual probability of it happening, because the bookmaker needs to build in a margin for himself.

With the advantage of inside knowledge, you increase the chances of your bet coming good, which would then make money on the odds the bookmaker was offering you. Still with me?

So, with inside knowledge it’s logical, purely from a numerical standpoint, to go ahead and place that bet.

The hapless punter may be willing to commit a crime to gain money, but at least he’s operating with logic.

Whereas…

Scenario 2: alcohol and sentiment 

To my knowledge none of the hapless punters have offered “I was blind drunk” as the excuse for placing these bets, but let’s explore it as an option, if only to rule it out.

Drunk betting only usually takes place at group events, like a ‘Day at the Races’ where no real knowledge of the sport is collectively available… despite Gavin from the Dev Team insisting on knowing which horses were better at ‘going around corners’.

Instead (and aided by two Aperols and five Proseccos) huge influence is put on the horse’s names¹.

I defy any drunk child-rearing Carol to not put a tenner ‘on the nose’ on Carol’s Lad in the last race of the day.

To my knowledge there is no such thing as an Election Day Prediction Party, especially in the UK, where the overwhelming majority of people just don’t give a shit.

C’mon you reds!

I can also understand why football fans, are more likely to place a bet on their own team for sentimental reasons, despite the odds of them winning the Cup being incredibly slim. 

Because sometimes they win! 

Especially in low scoring sports like football, that have a higher luck factor!

And when they do win, it outweighs the other 50 times when the bet didn’t come in! 

Can you imagine how large the celebration with your fellow fans might be!? 

I believe it was Albert Einstein me² who once said:

“The greater the odds, the larger the celebration!”

You don’t want to be the only drunk bastard in the room who had ‘lost the faith’.

But betting on the day of a calendar year for a political event, has neither form nor sentiment.

“Dear departed Granny always used to put a fiver each way on the 3rd Thursday of August for the General Election”, is a sentence that has never been formed before.

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In between stumbling in at 3am and falling over, no one has ever said:

“The lads got me so shit-faced I placed a bet on the General Election date!”

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Likewise…

“The shrooms were just kicking in, so rightly or wrongly I went for the 15th of August for the Election!”

… has never been uttered.

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Thus proving the ‘drunk and/or sentimental’ line of defence is null and void.

Which leaves us with…

Scenario 3: no inside knowledge

In this scenario, let’s assume the punter had NO inside knowledge at all, and was just going about his day, placing a bet on the date of the general election, because that’s the type of person they are.

[Please reread the above paragraph with more condescension if not liberally applied the first time.]

We know from the above that a date-picking-scenario of this kind has straight line probability. We’re not looking at ‘form’ or ‘fan loyalty’, it’s just a date being picked, not a boxing match being won.

In this example, the honest punter only has the same public information about the date-picking likelihood as the bookmaker… who is in the business of making money.

Therefore THE PAYOUT WOULD NOT BE PROFITABLE, because they would only offer odds that translated into ‘less likely than the true probability of the event happening’!!!

A BET LIKE THIS MAKES NO LOGICAL SENSE!!!

[and breathe]

Or rather… anyone who places a bet like this without any inside knowledge is not sensible… one could perhaps venture ‘stupid’.

In summary

I genuinely have nothing against stupid people, in fact I love them, because they do the jobs that we don’t want to do.

Without stupid people the world would be a much worse place.

However, I would prefer if they weren’t involved in government or were members of the police force who work closely with the Prime Minister. 

Can we not reserve those roles for people with a higher IQ than the idiots who are placing unprofitable bets on items of chance???

So, in this case, our ‘hapless punters’ EITHER acted illegally or stupidly!

Which, in my humble opinion, should result in job losses either way.

A hiring bonus for you

I hope had you been the interviewer for these positions, instead of bogging yourself down with finding out whether they’d prefer to face a ‘horse sized chicken’ or ‘100 chicken sized horses’³, you would simply ask…

Have you ever placed a bet on any of the following:

The exact date that Jay-lo and Ben Affleck go public with their break-up?

The next Pope’s chosen name?

The day on which the world will end?

A General Election date?

And if they answered yes, would you still employ them? 

I wouldn’t…

… unless there was a very detailed set of extenuating circumstances, which culminated in a hilarious story that you’ll all be telling for years!

But then I’m picky, as you know, I used to have a ‘no slow walking’ hiring policy.

Toodles!

K8x

Join in the comments below:

When was the last time you got so drunk, you and your mates decided it would be fun to put a bet on the date of the UK General Election?

What’s the stupidest bet you’ve ever placed, and will it lead to you being thrown out of the Government?

Thank you for being here, please ❤️ (below) if you enjoyed this piece, it really helps others find it.

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1. I once placed a fiver each way on Argos Dream, as it reminded me of my son’s favourite book when he was little… the Argos shopping catalogue. I’m still slightly miffed that it didn’t come in.

2. I have actually researched this quote, thinking surely someone is famous for saying it, and it appears not! So I’m claiming it as one of my own. Happy to be corrected.

3. This is an actual interview question, and your answer is meant to align with whether you prefer one huge problem or lots of little ones.